So now, I would like to take this time to share with you what I've formulated as the movies that right now have the most likely chance of getting nominated at the next Oscars ceremony. This is something I've been working at since January 1st, and I have a very complex system of estimating which films are most likely to be nominated for which categories. Essentially, it starts with breaking down the year into thirds:
January-April (The more forgetful period of film)
May-August (All the summer blockbusters)
September-December (The real Oscar contenders)
From there, I look at the present five-year chunk of nominees that the Academy has recognized each year. In this case, the five-year chunk would be 2014-2018. So for each category, I look at how many movies from each period were nominated for each year, and round up the average. For example, in 2014, the number of Best Picture nominees from the first third of the year is 1. In 2015 and 2016, it's 0, and for 2017, it's 1. I total them up and divide by four, it equals 0.5, which rounds up to 1. From there, I can estimate that 0-2 movies in 2018 from January to April will be nominated for Best Picture. 1 being the most likely number, 0 being second, and 2 being the least likely of the possible number of nominees from early in the year. I do the same also for how many movies total are nominated in that period of the year, as well as how many nominees total.
Many other factors go into play as well, including how much money past nominees made at the box office, what their RottenTomatoes score is, and although this may be a bit of a controversial deciding factor in your perspective, how its grades turn out in my grading system. This isn't to say that my system is perfect and the ultimate deciding factor of a film, because I admit I still have plenty to learn about how to critique a film. What I'm saying is that this system is a good estimate on how good or bad a movie really is, and seems to work well in predicting nominees. Thus, I concluded that with the system I set up, a C+ is the minimum requirement for a Best Picture nominee, a B- is the minimum for a Best Director nominee, and a C- is the minimum for a Screenwriting nominee.
Another factor I consider is the theme each category follows in which type of films get nominated. Thus, I concluded that movies with a contemporary setting pretty much never have a chance at getting nominated. With Best Picture, the nominees lean more toward anything set in the past, the future, or if it's a musical, set in a small US area, or emotionally depressing.
Alright, enough backstory. Here's my early predictions of what to keep an eye out for come this next awards season! (Links to reviews in images)
Legend for what the color coding means:
Gold= Definitely getting nominated
Green= Possibility of getting nominated
White= Longshot, but keep an eye on it